Consumers Feel The Pinch Of “Low”

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American consumers’ expectations for inflation 3 years ahead fell last month to the lowest level in records going back to June 2013, according to a monthly Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday.

The median respondent to the New York ’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations predicted annual consumer price inflation 3 years from now would be 2.78%, down from 2.84% in the September poll.

Median expected inflation 1 year ahead rebounded to 2.82% from a record low of 2.73% the month before.

The data release followed a 27-28 October meeting at which Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the policy-setting FOMC decided against raising the benchmark federal funds rate from Zero+, where it has been held since December 2008.

A statement released following the gathering said the committee would consider raising rates at its “next meeting” in December, with the decision depending on further labor market improvement and reasonable confidence that inflation would return to the Fed’s 2% target over the medium term. The statement noted “stable” survey-based measures of inflation expectations.

A monthly poll conducted by the University of Michigan (MSI) showed households projected annual inflation will average 2.5% in 5 to 10 years from now, according to data released 30 October.

, CEO of , says the upcoming holiday season, at least in an economic sense, can be summed up in a word: Humbug! We’re talking recession and job cuts, the economic equivalent of Santa leaving coal in your financial stocking.

“I expect job layoffs to start picking up by the end of the year,” Mr Schiff said identifying retailers as the 1st victim.  “Retailers have overestimated the ability of their customers to buy their products. Americans are broke. They are loaded up with debt,” he said. “Consumers are feeling the pinch.”

“We’re teetering on the edge of an official recession,” and “the labor market is softening,” he said.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts are not predicting a lot of cheer for retailers this holiday season either.

Monday, US major market indexes finished down: DJIA -179.85 at 17730.48, NAS Comp -51.82 at 5095.30, S&P 500 -20.62 at 2078.58

Volume: was above average with 900-M shares changing hands on the NYSE.

  • NAS Comp +7.6% YTD
  • S&P 500 +1.0% YTD
  • DJIA -0.5% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -1.5% YTD
Analysis for DIA: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.17) Bullish (0.39) Neutral (0.02) Neutral (0.10)
Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.04) Neutral (0.17) Neutral (-0.02) Neutral (-0.03)
Analysis QQQ:  Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.17) Bullish (0.36) Neutral (0.19) Neutral (-0.03)9

Stay tuned…

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