Expect To Join On Open Crude Oil Production

$OIL, $, ,

Expect Iran to raise its Crude Oil production to defend and add to its market share and to join Saudi Arabia at the next meeting to maintain the production output.

“We will be raising our oil production at any cost and we have no other alternative,” said Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, according a statement seen Sunday “If Iran’s Oil production hike is not done promptly, we will be losing our market share permanently.”

Iran once had the 2nd-biggest output in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries before US-led sanctions banning the purchase, transport, and insuring of its Crude Oil began in July 2012. Oil producers such as BP Plc (), and Royal Dutch Plc (NYSE:RDS-A) have expressed interest in developing its reserves, the world’s 4th-biggest, once sanctions are removed.

 Mr. Zanganeh spoke during the 1st visit by a British foreign secretary to Iran since Y 2003. Philip Hammond was accompanied by officials from Shell and BP during his visit to reopen the UK Embassy, 4 years after it was closed, marking the improvement in relations since July’s nuclear accord.

Shell will pay a debt of $2.3-B that the company was not able to pay Iran for because of the sanctions “immediately” after the restrictions are lifted, Mr. Zanganeh said. BP was a “good customers” of Iran’s Crude Oil before the sanctions and is also expected to take measures to buy Iranian Oil in the future, he said.

Iran backed calls for an emergency OPEC meeting to be held earlier than the group’s next session on 4 December.

“Iran endorses an emergency OPEC meeting and will not disagree with it,” Mr. Zanganeh said.

OPEC is pumping at near record levels, no matter the glut.

Algeria’s initiative to coordinate an OPEC response to diving Crude Oil prices had the backing of cash-strapped fellow members Libya and Venezuela. It was met with no public response from OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia, which has led the group’s decision to maintain its output target unchanged at 30-M+ BPD to preserve market share on rising production from the US, Russia and beyond.

OPEC pumped 32.1-M BPD of Crude in July.

Saudi Arabia is set to continue pumping near current levels of about 10-M BPD this year and next.

Mr. Zanganeh has said that other OPEC members should make room for Iran when it raises output after sanctions are lifted as a result of last month’s nuclear accord with the 6 UN world powers.

Iran pumped 2.85-mM BPD in July, down from 3.6-M at the end of Y 2011 according to the data, and has the capacity to pump 6-M BPD.

US benchmark WTI Crude fell to less than 40 bbl for the 1st time in more than 6 years in trading Friday. The global glut and increased concern that weakening Chinese growth may mean less demand has pushed down Brent Crude, the global benchmark, by about 21% this year.

Current Prices

WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX) USD/bbl. 39.42 -1.03 -2.55% OCT 15 23:04:11

Brent Crude Oil (ICE) USD/bbl. 44.49 -0.97 -2.13% OCT 15 23:03:46

for OIL:  Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.42) Very Bearish (-0.57) Very Bearish (-0.54) Neutral (-0.14)
Analysis for USO:  Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.41) Very Bearish (-0.53) Very Bearish (-0.55) Neutral (-0.14)

Have a terrific week.

Paul Ebeling

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